Shamrock Rovers came from behind to edge out Ararat-Armenia 2-1 in a tense Champions League qualifier that keeps their knockout hopes alive. Healy struck early for the hosts in the 11th minute with Greene providing the assist, then Greene himself doubled the lead before the break at the 36th mark, finishing off a setup from Byrne. Ararat-Armenia pulled one back through Sandro Lima in the 73rd minute, but it proved too little too late — Rovers held on to secure a one-goal victory that matters hugely given the aggregate picture heading into this tie.

Our model leaned toward a 2-0 Shamrock win heading into kickoff, backed by strong home form and a 64% probability of a Rovers victory. That lean on the result direction proved sound — we called the winner correctly — but missed the exact scoreline when Ararat-Armenia found the net late on. The match itself unfolded more competitively than our 2-0 prediction suggested, despite Rovers establishing themselves early and controlling much of the game. That's football; eliminate the margin for error and sometimes the underdog chips in a goal even when they're struggling.

What mattered most was the outcome. Rovers got the win they needed, and in a knockout tie where every goal carries weight, they'll take it. Ararat-Armenia's away form remained under pressure, but they at least managed a response late in the game rather than capitulating entirely. It's set up what should be a gripping second leg.