Shamrock Rovers dominated this Europa League knockout tie, running out 3-1 winners over Egnatia Rrogozhinë in a match that got off to a scrappy start before settling into clear patterns. Burke opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 29th minute, but Egnatia hit back almost immediately—Jaime equalised from the spot just before halftime, only for Greene to deflect the ball into his own net moments later to hand Rovers a 2-1 advantage at the break. The tie was decided after the interval when Lopes made it 3-1 in the 55th minute with an assist from Byrne, and Greene added a second goal shortly after, again courtesy of Byrne's creativity.

Our model had leaned toward a 2-1 Rovers win, which correctly backed the home side but missed the actual scoreline. The prediction gave Shamrock Rovers a 58% chance of victory—the most likely outcome, but far from a certainty. The match unfolded with more goals than expected, particularly in that chaotic spell either side of halftime where two quick strikes and an own goal reshaped the game. That clustering came after our forecast was locked in, so it's a fair miss: we'd weighted the tie as competitive and tight, and while the result went our way directionally, the intensity of Rovers' second-half control and the manner of their goals suggested they had more in reserve than the pregame picture allowed for. It's a reminder that knockout football can shift quickly once one side finds rhythm.