📊 Recent Form
Shamrock Rovers
KuPS
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Shamrock Rovers at 46%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Shamrock Rovers at 46% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 42% — a gap in our favour of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Shamrock Rovers and KuPS played out a tight 1-1 draw in this UEFA Conference League knockout tie, with neither side able to find the breakthrough that might've settled it. Rovers took the lead through Stevens in the 49th minute, but KuPS levelled things up when Parzyszek found the net in the 85th, set up by Antwi. A single goal in each half meant the sides went away with the result still very much in the balance heading into the second leg.
Our model had fancied a 2-1 win for Rovers before kickoff, marking it as the most likely outcome. That gave us a 46% lean to the designated home side, with a draw sitting at 25% — so while we didn't call it right, a stalemate was definitely in the plausible band of results rather than a shock. The match didn't play out the way we'd weighted it; Rovers' strong recent home record and KuPS' tendency to struggle away suggested a few goals might flow, but instead we got a composed, cagey affair that went the distance without either team pulling clear. On a knockout night where everything's at stake, it turned out both sides were organised enough to keep it tight, even if that meant the attacking freedom we'd half-expected didn't fully materialise.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers Win | 6/5 2.18 | 42% | 46% | +4% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.39 | 28% | 25% | -3% |
| KuPS Win | 2/1 3.10 | 30% | 29% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Conference League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Shamrock Rovers 5/5 home wins recently; KuPS alternating W/L away (WLWLW). Overall Rovers avg 2.15 scored, KuPS concede 1.31 but struggle away.
H2H: Limited data — no significant recent head-to-head history to weight heavily.
Stakes: UEFA Conference League knockout — both teams at maximum motivation, no resting of players expected.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — no meaningful recent H2H history available between these sides to influence the prediction significantly.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.