Shkendija vs Bravo
📖 The Preview
Shkendija are the team with everything to play for here. They lost the first leg 2-1 in Ljubljana, so they need to win by at least two goals at home to go through, and that desperation should translate into real pressure from the off. Bravo will fancy their chances of nicking a goal on the break, and their recent form suggests they're capable of it, but Shkendija's home advantage and the weight of elimination stakes point to a 3-1 win that sends this tie to extra time at the very least.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shkendija Win Value | 8/15 1.55 | 59% | 65% | +6% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.00 | 23% | 18% | -5% |
| Bravo Win | 4/1 5.20 | 18% | 17% | -1% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Conference League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 2-1 (2026-07-23): Bravo leading aggregate by 1. Shkendija needs to win by 1+ goals (or force ET if win by exactly 1); Bravo needs to avoid losing by 2+ goals.
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Shkendija xG 3.12 | Bravo xG 0.8
Projected: 76% / 14% / 10%
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited H2H data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.