📊 Recent Form
SK Beveren
Lommel United
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts SK Beveren at 51%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 28% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 point of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 45/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren Win | 4/5 1.80 | 52% | 51% | -1% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.75 | 25% | 28% | +3% |
| Lommel United Win | 3/1 3.90 | 23% | 21% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 SK Beveren mid-table (P9) — low motivation
- 😴 Lommel United mid-table (P12) — low motivation
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick — risk factors detected for SK Beveren, confidence reduced
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Beveren WWWW at home, Lommel WLWD away — home side holds the edge
H2H: 3.4 goals/game average, Beveren won 4 of 8, recent home wins 2-0 and 2-1
Stakes: Both teams mid-table (P9 vs P12), low motivation — slight lean toward home comfort
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H strongly favours moderate-to-high scoring; last 5 meetings include 2-0, 2-2, 1-2, 2-1, 3-1 — Beveren winning comfortably at home in recent clashes. The 2-1 scoreline has appeared twice in this fixture historically.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.