📊 Recent Form
SK Beveren
St. Truiden
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 37%. SK Beveren edge it at 36% against 28% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to St. Truiden while the probabilities favour SK Beveren. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
Across 1 bookmakers the consensus lands within 1 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 60/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 1 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren Win | 13/8 2.63 | 36% | 36% | ±0% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.66 | 26% | 28% | +2% |
| St. Truiden Win | 6/4 2.54 | 38% | 36% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 SK Beveren mid-table (P12) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Beveren inconsistent (WLLWLWWLLW) with home wins but poor recent scores (0-4, 0-4); St. Truiden more clinical (2.09 avg scored)
H2H: High-scoring history (3.4 avg), St. Truiden win 3 of last 8, neutral dominance but away side tends to perform well
Stakes: Beveren P12 with low motivation (dead rubber mentality); St. Truiden P8 with normal motivation — meaningful edge in desire
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings average 3.4 goals per game with St. Truiden winning 3, draws 3, Beveren winning 2 — a balanced but high-scoring fixture where away performances have historically been strong.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.