📊 Recent Form
Iraq
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 43%. a draw edge it at 42% against 42% for the draw and 30% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 2–0 points to Spain while the probabilities favour a draw. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as high. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Spain — limited data but elite ELO (2165); Iraq — LLWWWW overall but recent losses away vs stronger sides
H2H: Limited data — rare matchup between these nations
Stakes: Pre-World Cup 2026 warm-up; Spain highly motivated to build momentum; Iraq have nothing to lose but quality gap is significant
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — these nations rarely meet competitively; the ELO gap of 557 points is the strongest available indicator of expected outcome.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.