📊 Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Sparta Rotterdam at 56%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 22% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 10 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 4 goals. Comfortably over 2.5 and above the average match — the model expects both defences to give something up.
Confidence is filed as medium at 63/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Sparta Rotterdam came from behind to beat Willem II 3-2 in a match that swung decisively after half-time. Vilhena gave Willem II an early lead in the 17th minute, but Toornstra levelled things up just before the break in the 39th. After the restart, Sparta took control. Martes made it 2-1 in the 50th minute, then Zonneveld added a third four minutes into the second half, with Toornstra picking out the assist. Van Aalst pulled one back for Willem II in the 68th, courtesy of van Crooy's pass, but Sparta held firm to secure the win.
Our model predicted a 3-1 scoreline and backed Sparta at 56% — a lean among plausible outcomes rather than a confident call. The actual result swung Sparta's way, but with a different distribution of goals. The pre-match context flagged Sparta's dominance in this fixture and both sides' desperation at the wrong end of the table. The match bore out those expectations: Sparta's home advantage and superior recent record in the head-to-head showed up on the pitch, even if the exact breakdown of the second-half goals didn't match our forecast. Willem II, winless on the road coming into this one, found themselves chasing the game from the middle of the second period and couldn't claw their way back despite a late effort.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam Win | 3/5 1.61 | 58% | 56% | -2% |
| Draw | 10/3 4.34 | 22% | 22% | ±0% |
| Willem II Win | 7/2 4.75 | 20% | 22% | +2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Sparta Rotterdam in relegation danger (P14, only 2 pt cushion)
- 🆘 Willem II in relegation danger (P18/18)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Sparta poor overall (10% win rate) but H2H dominant; Willem II winless in 4 away games with mounting injuries
H2H: Sparta 7 wins in last 8, avg 3.6 goals/game, last home meeting 4-0
Stakes: Both in relegation danger — Sparta 14th with 2pt cushion, Willem II bottom (18th); maximum urgency for both sides
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Sparta Rotterdam have dominated this fixture ruthlessly — 7 wins in last 8 meetings, no draws, including a 4-0 home win in March 2025 and a 5-1 aggregate-style demolition in December 2025 away. High-scoring pattern strongly favours Sparta at home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
