Sporting CP dispatched Alverca 3-1 at home to secure a commanding victory, though not quite in the manner our model had anticipated. Araujo opened the scoring early on in the second minute, and Sporting looked set for the clean sheet when Mendes's own goal doubled the lead at the 55-minute mark. Suarez added a third on the hour—Catamo picking out the assist—to seemingly put the result beyond doubt. Alverca did grab a consolation through Figueiredo late on, courtesy of Moreira's assist, but it was no more than a footnote to Sporting's dominance.

Our pre-match prediction backed Sporting CP to win 3-0, which reflected the model's lean toward a comfortable home victory. That outcome carried a 67% win probability for the hosts, the most likely scenario we'd flagged. The final scoreline—3-1 instead of 3-0—tells you the core read was sound: Sporting were simply too strong at home, and Alverca couldn't sustain a defensive shape. The own goal and the timing of Suarez's strike showed Sporting weren't just pressing for goals; they were breaking through in clusters once the game opened up. Alverca's away form and attacking limitations, factors we'd highlighted beforehand, played out as expected. What we got wrong was the clean sheet—Figueiredo's 89th-minute reply meant Sporting couldn't keep Alverca out entirely—but that's a marginal miss on an otherwise accurate read of where the match would go.