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Sporting Kansas City
St. Louis City
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts St. Louis City at 45%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 21% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 10 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 62/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Sporting Kansas City and St. Louis City played out a 1-1 draw in a match that saw neither side able to break clear despite chances to win it. Lowen put St. Louis ahead in the 45th minute, and it looked like that might hold up. But Harris equalized for Sporting in the 55th with an assist from Calheira, and neither team found a way through after that.
Our model leaned toward a St. Louis win and predicted a 1-2 scoreline, giving that outcome 45% probability before kickoff. The draw landed at just 21% in our numbers, so this one didn't go the way we'd flagged. We'd weighted the form gap pretty heavily—St. Louis coming in strong, Sporting under real pressure—and expected that to tell. The match didn't line up that way. Both sides created what they needed but neither converted, which is sometimes just how football goes.
The result leaves Sporting in a tough spot given where they sit in the table, while St. Louis picks up a point that keeps them ticking over midtable. Not the cleanest outcome to call, but that's why the probabilities matter: a draw was always plausible, even if we didn't fancy it most.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City Win Value | 9/4 3.23 | 29% | 34% | +5% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.85 | 24% | 21% | -3% |
| St. Louis City Win | 1/1 2.00 | 47% | 45% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Sporting Kansas City in relegation danger (P15/15)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: SKC poor (LLWLLWWLDL, 30% wins, conceding 2.73/game); STL strong (DWWWWDDWWL, 60% wins, conceding just 1.02/game)
H2H: 3.7 avg goals/game, neutral dominance, recent meetings consistently see both teams score
Stakes: SKC in relegation danger (P15/15) — desperate for points but form suggests structural issues; STL playing with confidence mid-table
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H is high-scoring (3.7 goals/game average) with both teams regularly getting on the scoresheet — 4 of last 5 meetings saw both teams score, strongly supporting a BTTS outcome.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.