📊 Recent Form
ST Johnstone
Hibernian
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. ST Johnstone edge it at 40% against 27% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 0–1 points to Hibernian while the probabilities favour ST Johnstone. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have ST Johnstone at 40% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 34% — a gap in our favour of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
St Johnstone came from behind to beat Hibernian 2-1 at McDiarmid Park, with Josh Fowler the unlikely hero after scoring twice. Fowler opened the scoring in the 17th minute, but Hibernian levelled through Nathan Lowe just before the half-hour mark, with Miguel Changa Chaiwa picking out the assist. The game turned decisively when Fowler converted a penalty on 41 minutes, giving St Johnstone a one-goal lead they'd hold through to the final whistle.
Our model had backed a 0-1 away win, giving St Johnstone just a 40% chance of taking all three points. That call was well short — we'd weighed Hibernian's head-to-head record and away form as the stronger lean, and the match's scoreline played out higher than the 0-1 we'd predicted. St Johnstone's home record suggested they'd score, but we hadn't quite anticipated them turning a deficit into a win with a penalty-box contribution from Fowler.
The performance did track with what we'd flagged pre-kickoff: both sides capable of troubling the net, mid-table positioning with no extreme motivation gap, and a contest that came down to fine margins. Hibernian's away form and H2H advantage didn't translate on the day, and St Johnstone made their home advantage count when it mattered most. A solid reminder that form sheets and historical edges aren't guarantees — sometimes the underdog lean just runs into a team that's ready for it.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Johnstone Win Value | 7/4 2.76 | 34% | 40% | +6% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.24 | 29% | 27% | -2% |
| Hibernian Win | 6/4 2.50 | 37% | 33% | -4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: ST Johnstone home WDW, averaging 1.5 goals scored; Hibernian away WDDW, averaging 1.52 goals scored
H2H: Hibernian dominant — 4 wins vs 2 for STJ in last 8; avg 2.4 goals/game
Stakes: Both sides mid-table (P7-8 of 12), no extreme motivation differential — slight edge to Hibernian's H2H confidence
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Hibernian have won 4 of the last 8 meetings including back-to-back away wins of 3-0 and 2-0, showing consistent dominance in this fixture despite the ELO gap being minimal.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-1 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.