📊 Recent Form
St. Louis City
Austin
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes St. Louis City a 79% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have St. Louis City at 79% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 56% — a gap in our favour of 23 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
St. Louis City dispatched Austin with a dominant 3-0 victory that unfolded in two distinct phases. An own goal from Guilherme Biro in the 40th minute gave the hosts an unexpected early advantage, before the match was effectively settled by Fabrice Fall's 57th-minute strike. Dani Edelman's close-range finish in stoppage time capped a comprehensive performance that never wavered once St. Louis City established control.
Our model's prediction of a 3-0 St. Louis City win proved exactly right, hitting the correct scoreline and capturing the decisive nature of the home side's advantage. The pre-match analysis had flagged several factors that ultimately proved decisive: St. Louis City's lethal xG output and home-ground potency, Austin's vulnerability to conceding (averaging 2.65 goals against), and the attacking constraints facing the visitors through injuries and their abysmal 20% away-record win rate. The history between these sides—St. Louis City's five wins in eight meetings and their dominance of this fixture—also played out as expected.
What's notable is how the match avoided the higher-scoring trajectories suggested by historical averages and xG models. Both teams are battling relegation pressure, yet St. Louis City converted their chances with clinical efficiency rather than the volume-based chaos that high-scoring derbies sometimes produce. Austin offered little resistance despite their own desperation for points, suggesting that form and current confidence gaps matter more than raw historical patterns when clubs find themselves in crisis. This was a result where St. Louis City's marginal advantages across multiple dimensions—home support, personnel health, recent momentum—compounded into clear separation on the pitch.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City Win Value | 4/6 1.67 | 56% | 79% | +23% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.10 | 23% | 11% | -12% |
| Austin Win | 7/2 4.70 | 21% | 10% | -11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 St. Louis City in relegation danger (P14/15)
- 🆘 Austin in relegation danger (P13/15)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: St. Louis City averaging 1.7 goals scored at home with recent wins; Austin averaging only 1.5 scored but conceding 2.65/game with a 20% win rate
H2H: Historically high-scoring (3.4 avg), St. Louis City dominant with 5 wins in 8 meetings; last Austin win was away in May 2026
Stakes: Both clubs in relegation danger (P13 vs P14), but home side gets extra boost from crowd and desperate need for points
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
St. Louis City dominate H2H with 5 wins in 8 meetings; fixture averages 3.4 goals per game historically, with the home side winning the majority of encounters at home
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 3-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-0 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.