📊 Recent Form
St. Louis City
Colorado Rapids
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts St. Louis City at 58%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 20% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have St. Louis City at 58% where the consensus of 12 bookmakers has 47% — a gap in our favour of 11 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 4 goals. Comfortably over 2.5 and above the average match — the model expects both defences to give something up.
Confidence is filed as medium at 53/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
St. Louis City ground out a 1-0 win over Colorado Rapids in a match shaped decisively by an early red card. With Colorado down to ten men from the 12th minute after R. Holding's dismissal, the Rapids found themselves in a desperate fight just to keep the scoreline respectable. St. Louis City made their numerical advantage tell in the 83rd minute when Ostrak finished off a move set up by Totland, sealing the three points and leaving Colorado's relegation hopes hanging by a thread.
Our model had fancied a high-scoring affair, predicting a 3-1 St. Louis win before kickoff and assigning the home side a 58% win probability. We got the direction right—St. Louis City did win—but completely overshot the goal tally. The pre-match outlook was built on St. Louis's strong home form and Colorado's struggles on the road, paired with the stakes Colorado would bring fighting for their survival. Instead, a man down clamped the contest shut. What looked like a likely attacking showcase became a tighter, more controlled game, and our prediction for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals went nowhere. Missing the exact scoreline by that margin is a reminder that even a well-reasoned lean can't account for the match-changing moments that actually unfold on the pitch.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City Win Value | 1/1 2.01 | 47% | 58% | +11% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 20% | -5% |
| Colorado Rapids Win | 9/4 3.31 | 28% | 22% | -6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Colorado Rapids in relegation danger (P11, only 2 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: St. Louis City in strong home form with high scoring (avg 2.41 goals); Colorado Rapids struggling away (LWLL) but averaging only 0.96 goals scored
H2H: Neutral dominance over 7 meetings, avg ~2 goals/game, recent 1-0 STL win in May 2026
Stakes: Colorado Rapids in relegation danger (P11, 2pt cushion) — will press hard; St. Louis mid-table with normal motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Seven meetings split fairly evenly — 2 STL wins, 2 draws, 3 Colorado wins. Average of ~2 goals per game historically, suggesting tight, competitive matches. Most recent meeting (May 2026) ended 1-0 to STL, reinforcing a low-to-moderate scoring pattern at home.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.