St. Louis City and FC Dallas served up a dramatic eight-goal thriller that neither side will forget in a hurry, finishing 3-3 after a frantic contest that swung back and forth right through to the final whistle. Becher got the hosts off to a perfect start in the third minute, but Moore levelled for Dallas just fifteen minutes later. Edelman restored City's lead before halftime, and Holse added a third in the 64th minute, courtesy of an assist from Wallem, to put the home side seemingly in control. Dallas weren't done, though. Ibeagha pulled one back with the help of Valiente's assist on 81 minutes, and then Farrington sent the match completely bonkers with a last-gasp equaliser deep into stoppage time, set up by Musa, to make it 3-3.

Our model went into the match expecting a 2-1 St. Louis City win, assigning that result a 41% probability—the most likely outcome among a handful of plausible scenarios, but well short of a strong lean. A draw ranked at just 28%, which meant the final 3-3 stalemate came in as a curveball. The prediction was built on St. Louis's home strength and Dallas's defensive frailties on the road, alongside the assumption that both sides' European ambitions would sharpen their attacking edges while keeping them reasonably disciplined. The match did deliver the attacking football we'd flagged—six goals in total tracks with the high-stakes stakes and the creative threat on both flanks—but the model underestimated Dallas's resilience and comeback character. In the end, neither team landed the knockout blow, and a draw rewarded both sides' attacking intent while punishing neither's defensive lapses enough to swing three points.