📊 Recent Form
St. Louis City
Houston Dynamo
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. St. Louis City edge it at 40% against 27% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Houston Dynamo while the probabilities favour St. Louis City. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have St. Louis City at 40% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 44% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 35/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
St. Louis City came away with a one-goal win over Houston Dynamo in a match that didn't quite play out the way our model had anticipated. Becher opened the scoring early in the 23rd minute with an assist from Matan, giving the home side the lead. Houston pulled level through Aliyu in the 75th minute, setting up a tense final stretch. Polvara sealed it for St. Louis in the 85th minute to secure a 2-1 victory.
Our pre-match prediction favoured a 1-2 scoreline with Houston winning, giving St. Louis City a 40% chance of victory. The actual result—a St. Louis win—sat outside our primary lean, though it wasn't an implausible outcome in the broader picture. The match did broadly align with what we'd expected in terms of intensity and goal-scoring threat before kickoff; the Poisson model had flagged both sides as closely matched in expected output. What shifted was which team converted their chances when it counted, and St. Louis ultimately found the extra goal to take all three points.
It's a reminder that tight matchups often hinge on fine margins. Our model had weighted Houston slightly higher based on pre-match metrics, but St. Louis' win was well within the range of likely outcomes and reflected a solid display that deserved the result. One to learn from as we head into the next round of fixtures.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City Win | 11/10 2.10 | 44% | 40% | -4% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 27% | ±0% |
| Houston Dynamo Win | 9/4 3.30 | 29% | 33% | +4% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🇪🇺 St. Louis City in European race (P6)
- 🏆 Houston Dynamo in title race (P1)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: St. Louis City xG 1.63 | Houston Dynamo xG 1.58
Projected: 35% / 29% / 36%
H2H: 2W-3D-3L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
2W-3D-3L for St. Louis City in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.