📊 Recent Form
St. Louis City
Real Salt Lake
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts St. Louis City at 58%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 19% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have St. Louis City at 58% where the consensus of 12 bookmakers has 44% — a gap in our favour of 14 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 4 goals. Comfortably over 2.5 and above the average match — the model expects both defences to give something up.
Confidence is filed as low at 48/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
St. Louis City and Real Salt Lake played out a tight 1-1 draw on the night, with the visitors taking the lead through Solans in the 60th minute before Hartel levelled things up for the hosts thirteen minutes later. It wasn't the goal-heavy affair our model had pencilled in beforehand.
Coming into this one, our model backed St. Louis City at 58% to win and predicted a 3-1 scoreline, leaning on their strong home form and RSL's poor away record. The head-to-head history suggested goals were likely too — these sides had regularly played out open matches. But football doesn't always cooperate with the numbers. A draw was only assigned 19% probability in our pre-match assessment, so this was well outside our primary lean. The match unfolded as a much tighter, more defensive contest than the underlying form suggested it might be, with neither side able to press home a real advantage despite the goal-rich pattern we'd flagged between them.
There's not much mystery to what went wrong here — our model weighted St. Louis's home advantage and RSL's road struggles more heavily than the night warranted. The execution didn't match the script. That's football, and it's why we track these things. On to the next one.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City Win Value | 11/10 2.11 | 44% | 58% | +14% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.71 | 25% | 19% | -6% |
| Real Salt Lake Win | 2/1 3.07 | 31% | 23% | -8% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: St. Louis City in strong home form (WWWDW), averaging 2.17 goals scored; RSL poor away record (LLDLL) and averaging 1.68 conceded.
H2H: 3.6 avg goals per meeting, historically competitive but goals-rich — recent meetings include 2-2, 3-2, 1-1.
Stakes: Both sides mid-table with normal motivation; no pressure skew.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
H2H is high-scoring (3.6 goals/game avg) with draws and away wins featuring, but RSL missing key personnel this time shifts the balance toward a St. Louis home victory with goals on both ends.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-1 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.