📊 Recent Form
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. ST Mirren edge it at 43% against 24% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have ST Mirren at 43% where the consensus of 8 bookmakers has 40% — a gap in our favour of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 60/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Dundee United came to Paisley and dismantled St Mirren with a clinical first-half display that put the contest beyond doubt long before the break. Jesse Randall opened the scoring in the sixth minute with Daniel Bennie's assist, then Lyall Cameron doubled the lead six minutes later after a setup from Idjessi Metsoko. By halftime, Randall had turned provider for Kevin Ciubotaru to make it three, and St Mirren had no answer. The away side's urgency and sharpness in front of goal proved the difference.
Our model tipped a narrow 1-0 St Mirren win, giving Dundee United just a 33 per cent chance of victory. That was a significant lean toward the home side, but it didn't account for the intensity Dundee United brought to the pitch. The pre-match analysis flagged the visitors' relegation battle as a motivational factor and noted their head-to-head record — they'd won five of the last eight meetings between these sides — but the model underweighted how much that desperation would show up in their play. A 3-0 away win was well outside our central expectation, and this one stings.
The stats we tracked before kickoff did hint at vulnerability. St Mirren's form had been mixed, and Dundee United's history in this fixture suggested they could trouble the defence. What we didn't anticipate was the speed and clinical nature of their execution. They were ruthless in the opening moments when chances came, and that's exactly what a team fighting for survival needs to be. Fair play to them.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 8 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST Mirren Win | 11/8 2.35 | 40% | 43% | +3% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.54 | 26% | 24% | -2% |
| Dundee Utd Win | 7/4 2.74 | 34% | 33% | -1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Dundee Utd in relegation danger (P11/12)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: ST Mirren averaging 1.48 goals scored at home with mixed results (LDWLW); Dundee Utd averaging 1.33 goals but with strong motivational boost from relegation danger.
H2H: Dundee Utd win 5 of last 8 meetings, away-dominant pattern, avg 2.1 goals/game.
Stakes: Dundee Utd in relegation battle (P11/12) — expect high intensity and urgency from the away side.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Dundee Utd dominate this fixture with 5 wins in last 8 meetings and the H2H is labelled 'away_dominant'. Recent results include a 2-1 Dundee Utd win in March 2026 and a 1-1 draw in May 2026, suggesting close but away-favoured contests.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
