📊 Recent Form
St. Truiden
RAAL La Louvière
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts St. Truiden at 51%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 30% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have St. Truiden at 51% where the consensus of 11 bookmakers has 58% — a gap against us of 7 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as low at 53/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden Win | 8/13 1.62 | 58% | 51% | -7% |
| Draw Value | 3/1 4.00 | 24% | 30% | +6% |
| RAAL La Louvière Win | 4/1 5.00 | 18% | 19% | +1% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 St. Truiden mid-table (P11) — low motivation
- 🆘 RAAL La Louvière in relegation danger (P15, only 0 pt cushion)
- ⚠️ Narrow-margin home pick — risk factors detected for St. Truiden, confidence reduced
🔍 Key Stats
Form: St. Truiden inconsistent but strong at home in recent H2H; RAAL struggling away with just 1 win in last 9
H2H: St. Truiden won both recent meetings 2-1 each time — a highly consistent pattern
Stakes: RAAL fighting relegation will press hard but St. Truiden's quality and home advantage prevails
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
St. Truiden have won both recent meetings, both ending 2-1 — a remarkably consistent scoreline suggesting a competitive but home-favoured contest.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.