📊 Recent Form
St. Truiden
Union St. Gilloise
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 44%. Union St. Gilloise edge it at 43% against 28% for the draw and 29% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Union St. Gilloise at 43% where the consensus of 11 bookmakers has 46% — a gap against us of 3 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 78/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden Win | 5/2 3.58 | 27% | 29% | +2% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 28% | +1% |
| Union St. Gilloise Win | 1/1 2.01 | 46% | 43% | -3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 St. Truiden mid-table (P10) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: St. Truiden W40% with 1.83 avg goals scored; Union St. Gilloise W60% with 2.21 avg goals scored and only 1.13 conceded
H2H: Union St. Gilloise dominant — 6 wins in last 8, avg 2.5 goals per game, away team historically wins
Stakes: St. Truiden mid-table (P10) with low motivation; Union St. Gilloise (P6) pushing for European spots — meaningful incentive differential
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Union St. Gilloise have won 6 of the last 8 H2H meetings including 3 of the last 4 at St. Truiden's ground. The one recent St. Truiden home win (2-1, May 2026) is the exception rather than the rule. Average of 2.5 goals per game in recent meetings supports a modest goal total.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.