Stade Brestois 29 absolutely dismantled Angers with a dominant 5-1 win that bore little resemblance to what our model had envisioned before kickoff. The visitors took charge early, with Ajorque opening the scoring in the ninth minute after a Magnetti assist, then Tousart doubled the lead just eight minutes later courtesy of a Chotard cross. A Lala penalty on the half-hour made it three, and Baldé added a fourth before the break with Mboup providing the assist. Angers pulled one back through Peter early in the second half, but Mboup sealed the rout with a fifth in the 54th minute. A red card for Lefort in the 59th left Angers chasing shadows for the closing stages.

Our pre-match prediction of a 1-2 scoreline leaning toward an Angers win didn't come close. We'd given Stade Brestois 29 just a 38% chance, with the hosts only fractionally favoured in a tight three-way call. The underlying xG data had pointed toward a competitive, low-scoring affair, with Angers actually projected to create more, but something went badly wrong for the visitors from the opening exchanges. The early goals seemed to drain whatever Angers had planned, and Stade Brestois 29's clinical finishing turned what could've been a close game into a rout.

When a result swings this wildly from the model's lean, it's worth noting that this sort of performance gap—a 5-1 demolition when a competitive 1-2 was expected—usually stems from one side executing far above their pre-match level or the other collapsing. On this evidence, Stade Brestois 29 turned up with intensity and precision that the numbers hadn't flagged, and they made Angers pay. That's football: sometimes the teams on the pitch have other ideas.