📊 Recent Form
Standard Liege
Charleroi
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 39%. Standard Liege edge it at 38% against 28% for the draw and 34% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Standard Liege at 38% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 45% — a gap against us of 7 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege Win | 11/10 2.10 | 45% | 38% | -7% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.34 | 28% | 28% | ±0% |
| Charleroi Win Value | 5/2 3.40 | 27% | 34% | +7% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Standard Liege averaging 1.9 goals scored at home with wins of 2-1, 5-0, 2-1 in recent home games; Charleroi averaging 1.1 goals scored but 0.87 conceded — compact away side capable of grabbing one.
H2H: Last 8 meetings perfectly split 3-3-2; average 2 goals per game; Standard Liege won most recent H2H 2-1 and won at home 3-1 in Oct 2025.
Stakes: Season finale intensity boosts both sides; no clear relegation/promotion skew identified but home pride and fan pressure favours Standard Liege.
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 8 meetings perfectly split — 3 Standard Liege wins, 3 Charleroi wins, 2 draws. Average just 2 goals per game. Standard Liege won the last H2H 2-1 at Charleroi and won 3-1 at home in Oct 2025, giving them a slight recent edge in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.