📊 Recent Form
Standard Liege
Charleroi
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 40%. Standard Liege edge it at 39% against 26% for the draw and 35% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Charleroi while the probabilities favour Standard Liege. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Standard Liege at 39% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 32% — a gap in our favour of 7 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 64/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege Win Value | 15/8 2.89 | 32% | 39% | +7% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.40 | 27% | 26% | -1% |
| Charleroi Win | 5/4 2.30 | 41% | 35% | -6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Standard inconsistent (40% win rate, avg 1.4 scored); Charleroi in excellent form (70% win rate, avg 2.11 scored, away record WWWD)
H2H: Limited historical data available — defaulting to current form weight
Stakes: Both teams mid-table (P7 vs P4), no extreme pressure, Charleroi pushing for top positions adds mild motivation edge
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data available — relying heavily on current season form, which strongly favours Charleroi in attack and defence
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.