📊 Recent Form
Stoke City
Charlton
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. Stoke City edge it at 40% against 27% for the draw and 33% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
Note that the projected scoreline of 1–2 points to Charlton while the probabilities favour Stoke City. Those answer different questions. A home win is spread across 1–0, 2–0, 2–1 and more, so no single home scoreline need be the most likely result on the board even when home is the most likely outcome. The engine publishes the modal scoreline and the outcome probabilities side by side rather than forcing them to agree.
We have Stoke City at 40% where the consensus of 11 bookmakers has 44% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 52/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Stoke City dismantled Charlton 4-0 in a dominant Championship display that bore little resemblance to our pre-match forecast. Justin Devenny struck twice, converting a penalty in the 15th minute before adding a second from an Eric Junior Bocat assist in the 40th. Ethan Galbraith added the third in the 22nd, with George Hirst capping the rout just three minutes later, also set up by Bocat. The home side's ruthless finishing in the opening half essentially decided the tie.
Our model had backed a 1-2 scoreline in Charlton's favour, assigning the visitors a 33 per cent win probability while giving Stoke just 40 per cent. That lean reflected Charlton's strong form and their positioning in the title race, set against Stoke's inconsistent shape and relegation-battle desperation. The fixture history—averaging three goals per game and split evenly in recent head-to-heads—also suggested a competitive contest. None of that materialised. Instead, Stoke's defending was solid and their attack clinical, while Charlton couldn't get a foothold in the game.
There's not much more to it than that: the model identified a plausible but minority scenario, and Stoke went the other way entirely. Form and context don't always translate to the pitch, and this was a clean miss.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 11 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke City Win | 11/10 2.12 | 44% | 40% | -4% |
| Draw | 9/4 3.25 | 29% | 27% | -2% |
| Charlton Win Value | 5/2 3.50 | 27% | 33% | +6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Stoke City in relegation danger (P21, only 1 pt cushion)
- 🏆 Charlton in title race (P2)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Championship history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Stoke inconsistent (W30%, conceding 1.51/game); Charlton strong (W60%, scoring 1.32/game away)
H2H: High-scoring fixture averaging 3 goals/game, last 4 split 2-2 between sides, Charlton won most recent
Stakes: Stoke desperately battling relegation but undermined by 6 injuries; Charlton pressing for the title with clear motivation
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Last 4 meetings average 3 goals per game with an even 2-2 split in wins; Charlton won the most recent encounter 1-0, but Stoke claimed a dominant 3-0 home victory in November 2025 — suggesting home advantage can matter here.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.