Stoke City's 1-0 win over Norwich was a result that went against the grain of what preceded it. Galbraith gave Stoke an early lead in the 13th minute, and that proved enough to seal the three points. It wasn't the high-scoring affair the pre-match data suggested might unfold, and it wasn't the Norwich victory our model had leaned toward either.

Our prediction of a 1-2 scoreline heavily favoured Norwich, who came in with a stronger record and better away form, while Stoke were fighting relegation battles and struggling for goals. The model assigned just a 30% chance to a Stoke win, so this outcome landed outside our primary lean. The gap between what we'd flagged and what actually happened came down to the kinds of things that happen in football — a team under pressure can find a spark, and defensive solidity on the day counts for plenty. Stoke's poor form going into this one made them underdogs for good reason, but they delivered when it mattered.

What didn't materialise was the attacking output we'd anticipated from both sides. The model had weighted the odds toward goals, given Norwich's recent form and the historical tendency for Stoke–Norwich meetings to be open affairs. Instead, it turned into a tighter contest where Stoke made their chances count and Norwich couldn't break through. It's a reminder that pre-match patterns don't always hold sway — and that's exactly why football's worth watching.