PSG came away with a 3-1 win at Strasbourg, but it took a second-half surge to turn a tight contest into a comfortable victory. Strasbourg struck first through Giovanni Reyna in the 17th minute, assisted by Gessime Yassine, and for long stretches looked like they might hold their own. PSG's response came from the penalty spot when Ousmane Dembélé converted in the 72nd minute, then the visitors took control. Ilya Zabarnyi made it 2-1 in the 77th, with Dembélé providing the assist, before Dembélé added a third late on at 85 minutes. Désiré Doue rounded things off in stoppage time with a fourth, assisted by Ferrán Torres.

Our model leaned toward PSG but only moderately — a 44% win probability meant this ranked as one of several plausible outcomes rather than a strong conviction. We'd predicted a 1-2 scoreline, which correctly called the result direction but underestimated PSG's dominance after the break. The pre-match factors we highlighted — PSG's strong recent run and rotation risk, Strasbourg's low motivation despite being capable at home — played out in different measure than expected. Strasbourg's early energy and that opening goal suggested they'd make a game of it, but once PSG settled into the second half they pulled away decisively.

Where we got it slightly wrong was the margin. We'd flagged Strasbourg's ability to score at home and PSG's potential fatigue, which aligned with the tighter prediction of 1-2. Instead, PSG were sharper and more clinical than the model's lean suggested, turning what looked like a contested first half into a one-sided final 45 minutes. It's a reminder that even well-reasoned predictions sit within a range — this was a plausible outcome we'd assigned decent odds to, just not the most likely shape of the win.