Fenerbahçe came away with a 1-0 victory over Sturm Graz in what proved a tight and disciplined Champions League encounter. The Turkish side's dominance in the underlying metrics bore fruit in the 66th minute when Talisca converted from the penalty spot, securing three points in a match that stayed largely under control. Sturm Graz offered little going forward and couldn't create the chances needed to trouble their visitors.

Our model leaned toward a Fenerbahçe win—51% was the most likely outcome before kickoff—but predicted a wider scoreline at 0-2. The xG picture heading in had suggested Fenerbahçe would be substantially the stronger team (2.78 vs 0.7), and that superiority did show up on the pitch. Where we got it wrong was the margin: one goal instead of two meant we missed the exact score, even though we nailed the direction of the result. The match unfolded mostly in line with what we'd expected—Fenerbahçe controlled play and found the breakthrough—but Sturm Graz held firm for longer than our model had anticipated, at least in terms of the final tally.

It's a reminder that even when the broad strokes line up, football's narrowness—one penalty, one moment—can shift the difference between a comfortable prediction and a partial miss. Fenerbahçe got the job done with ruthless efficiency; we got the winner right, just not by how much.