Swansea dominated Watford to secure a convincing 2-0 win at home, and in doing so they proved the sharper, more hungry side across the 90 minutes. Eom Ji-Sung opened the scoring early on in the eighth minute with an assist from Idah, then the two linked up again just after the half-hour when Idah finished to double Swansea's lead. Once Watford fell two goals behind, they couldn't muster a meaningful response, and Swansea's strong home form held firm to complete the job.

Our model predicted a 2-1 scoreline with a 52% lean toward Swansea winning, so we called the result direction right but missed the actual score. The 2-0 outcome sat well outside our primary expectation — we'd factored in a tighter match, partly because Championship football tends to produce close contests and partly because we'd weighted a draw higher than hindsight might suggest. What we did get spot on was the foundation: Swansea's defensive control at home (averaging 0.54 conceded per game) and Watford's touring weakness proved decisive, just not quite in the shape we'd forecast.

The motivation gap we noted before kickoff — Swansea chasing promotion and Watford sitting comfortably mid-table — showed up plainly in the execution. Swansea moved the ball quickly, closed Watford down efficiently, and took their chances when they came. Watford never really threatened to pull back into it, and that flatness was the story of the match. Our model leans right often enough, but 2-0 served up a reminder that even a well-founded prediction can find the score wrong, even when the call itself holds up.