Türkiye vs FYR Macedonia
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye Win | 2/9 1.22 | 76% | 40% | -36% |
| Draw Value | 9/2 5.60 | 16% | 36% | +20% |
| FYR Macedonia Win Value | 10/1 12.00 | 8% | 24% | +16% |
📊 Heads up: bookmakers disagree
Across 12 bookmakers, the consensus favoured Türkiye (76% implied probability). Our engine saw this match differently.
We surface this disagreement so you can weigh both views. The pick above is our engine's, not the bookmakers' — but if you'd usually trust the market, this is worth knowing.
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Türkiye W in last game (2-1), Macedonia lost last game (1-2) with 0% win rate
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: International friendly — moderate motivation, but home side has pride and preparation advantage
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Macedonia's poor attacking output (0.9 avg goals scored); Under 2.5 favoured given xG totals below 1.6 and friendly context reducing intensity
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
FYR Macedonia average just 0.9 goals scored per game and failed to score in their most recent match (0-0), making it unlikely they trouble the Turkish defence. With Türkiye's defence conceding but Macedonia's attack misfiring, the away side is expected to be shut out in a tight friendly.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
Combined xG of just 1.54 (0.79 + 0.75) points firmly toward a low-scoring affair. Both teams are well-rested but this is a friendly with reduced competitive intensity, and the top Poisson scorelines are all sub-3 goals. Under 2.5 is the clear expectation.