📊 Recent Form
Tajikistan
India
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 39%. a draw edge it at 38% against 38% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have a draw at 38% where the consensus of 12 bookmakers has 25% — a gap in our favour of 13 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 12 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajikistan Win | 8/13 1.62 | 57% | 36% | -21% |
| Draw Value | 11/4 3.63 | 25% | 38% | +13% |
| India Win Value | 4/1 5.10 | 18% | 26% | +8% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Tajikistan inconsistent at home (DLL), India solid away (DWL) with good defensive numbers
H2H: Limited data available
Stakes: Friendly match with no competitive stakes — both teams likely to play cautiously with nothing to lose
Betting: both teams to score, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to draw strong directional conclusions between these two sides.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-1 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.