Tajikistan vs India
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajikistan Win | 8/11 1.73 | 53% | 35% | -18% |
| Draw Value | 5/2 3.50 | 26% | 38% | +12% |
| India Win Value | 7/2 4.48 | 21% | 27% | +6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Tajikistan home form poor (DLL); India away form mixed but draw-heavy (DWL)
H2H: Limited recent data
Stakes: Friendly match — neither side under pressure, reducing motivation for risky attacking play
Betting: Bookmakers imply ~38% draw probability; xG model also peaks at draw; 1-1 balances both teams scoring with low total
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient H2H history to establish a reliable trend between these two sides.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Both teams have shown they can score — Tajikistan average 2.01 goals per game and India recently put 6 past an opponent. Even in a tight friendly, both attacks are capable of finding the net, and neither defence is consistently watertight (Tajikistan concede 1.9 per game, India 1.13).
Over 2.5 Goals: No
With a combined xG of just 1.54 and both teams in a low-stakes friendly context, the incentive for high-tempo attacking play is reduced. The model's top scorelines are all under 2.5 goals and the draw probability is highest, making under 2.5 the more likely outcome here.