Sparta Rotterdam came away with a comfortable 3-1 victory at Telstar, taking control early and holding their nerve despite a late Telstar push. Young opened the scoring for Sparta in the sixth minute with an assist from Thorisson, then Thorisson doubled the lead himself in the 53rd minute after Mito set him up. Telstar pulled one back through Soualhia deep into stoppage time at 90+1, but any hopes of a comeback evaporated when van Cruijsen sealed it for Sparta in the 90+7th minute, courtesy of Kuipers' assist.

Our model landed the result direction wrong on this one. We predicted a 2-1 Telstar win with a 54 percent lean toward the home side, meaning we assigned just 24 percent to a Sparta victory — the outcome that actually unfolded. Going into the match, we'd flagged Telstar's stronger recent scoring form and their head-to-head advantage, which skewed our read toward the underdog at home. What we didn't account for was Sparta's ability to control the game early and capitalize on their chances. They were clinical when it mattered, and Telstar, despite their pedigree on paper, couldn't generate the kind of attacking threat we'd anticipated. The late goal from Soualhia offered brief encouragement but came too little and far too late.