📊 Recent Form
Toulouse
Le Havre
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Toulouse at 52%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 25% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 1 goal. Below the 2.5 line and then some — a game the model expects to turn on a single moment rather than on volume.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Toulouse came out firing in the second half and nearly put the game to bed early, but Le Havre fought back hard to make it a proper contest. Casper Tengstedt opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 49th minute, then added a second just two minutes later with the help of Thomas Jorgensen's assist. That looked like it might be game over at 2-0, but Le Havre weren't done—Josh Maja pulled one back in the 71st minute, set up by Sota Nakamura. Jorgensen restored Toulouse's two-goal cushion with a finish in the 79th, but Le Havre grabbed a late consolation through Mbwana Ally Samatta in the 88th. Final score: Toulouse 3, Le Havre 2.
Our model leaned toward a Toulouse win at 52% confidence, but backed that with a prediction of a narrow 1-0 scoreline. The match didn't quite match that script—it was far more open and goal-heavy than expected. We had flagged a clean sheet for one side and under 2.5 goals as the likeliest shape, based on pre-match expected goals that favored Toulouse but suggested a tighter affair overall. Instead, five goals flew in across the two halves, which wasn't in the brief.
To be straight about it: we got the result right but missed the story. The model correctly identified that Toulouse were the better-placed team on the day, yet it underestimated how much attacking play would open up once the match got going. Both sides created more than the pre-match xG figures suggested they would, and what looked set to be a cagey, low-scoring win turned into an entertaining back-and-forth. That's a reminder that even when you nail the winner, the detail matters—and a 3-2 finish tells a very different tale from 1-0.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse Win | 8/11 1.75 | 54% | 52% | -2% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.70 | 26% | 25% | -1% |
| Le Havre Win | 7/2 4.70 | 20% | 23% | +3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Toulouse in relegation danger (P17/18)
- 🆘 Le Havre in relegation danger (P16/18)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Ligue 1 history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Toulouse xG 1.75 | Le Havre xG 0.92
Projected: 55% / 25% / 20%
H2H: 3W-2D-3L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
3W-2D-3L for Toulouse in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 1-0 scoreline totals 1 goals, keeping it under 2.5.