📊 Recent Form
Trabzonspor
Ferencvarosi TC
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 45%. Trabzonspor edge it at 44% against 25% for the draw and 31% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have Trabzonspor at 44% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 57% — a gap against us of 13 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 60/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Ferencvarosi TC took control of this Europa League knockout tie with a disciplined 1-0 win in Turkey. Zachariassen broke the deadlock in the 17th minute, assisted by Nagy, and that single goal proved enough to settle the contest. Trabzonspor pressed for an equaliser throughout but couldn't find the breakthrough, and a late red card to Nwaiwu in the 90+6th minute capped a frustrating evening for the home side.
Our model had predicted a 2-1 scoreline favouring Trabzonspor, assigning them a 44% win probability against Ferencvarosi's 31%. That lean reflected pre-match form that suggested Trabzonspor might shade it — though the model also flagged mixed recent results and Ferencvarosi's proven ability to grind out narrow victories. The actual result, a Ferencvarosi win by a single goal, sat lower in the probability distribution but wasn't an outlier. The match played out in a very different way than we'd sketched: tighter, more defensive, and ultimately decided by an early break rather than a goal-heavy encounter.
What cost our call was the gap between expecting open, high-scoring football and what turned out to be a cagier Europa League knockout. Ferencvarosi's solidity — they've shown real consistency in one-goal outputs — proved more decisive than Trabzonspor's slight home-ground advantage. This is the kind of match where a small probability shift in the model's favour was always plausible; it just didn't land on our headline prediction.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor Win | 8/13 1.63 | 57% | 44% | -13% |
| Draw | 3/1 4.04 | 24% | 25% | +1% |
| Ferencvarosi TC Win Value | 4/1 4.80 | 19% | 31% | +12% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Trabzonspor winless in 4 of last 5, averaging 0.66 goals scored; Ferencvarosi TC won 4 of last 9 with consistent 1-goal outputs
H2H: 2 meetings average 3 goals/game, last away meeting ended 3-2 to Ferencvaros — goals expected
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — full intensity from both sides, no motivation discount applied
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Only 2 recent meetings but both were competitive and combined for 6 goals total (3/game). Ferencvaros won the away leg 3-2 in 2022, directly mirroring this fixture type — suggests an open, goal-laden contest.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.