Trabzonspor absolutely dismantled Galatasaray with a dominant 4-0 victory that bore no resemblance to our pre-match forecast. Salah was the star turn, opening the scoring in the fourth minute after a neat setup from Eskihellac, then doubling his tally in the 39th minute courtesy of Salah's assist. A third goal arrived before the break when Salah made it 3-0 on 44 minutes, this time teed up by Franculino. Late on, Salah completed a fine individual performance by converting from Tufan's assist to seal a four-goal haul. Red cards to Buruk in the 73rd minute and Ugochukwu on 85 minutes for Galatasaray compounded a miserable evening for the visitors.

Our model rated this a 1-2 Galatasaray win as the most likely outcome, giving Trabzonspor just a 33% chance. The forecast leaned heavily on Galatasaray's stronger recent form and their position atop the table against a mid-table Trabzonspor side with mixed recent results. That motivation and quality gap simply didn't show up on the pitch. Instead, Trabzonspor's inconsistent form masked a capacity to produce a statement performance, while Galatasaray's away record and title credentials counted for nothing. It's a straightforward miss — the model weighted the underlying form and league position as decisive factors that didn't translate into the match itself.