📊 Recent Form
Tromso
CFR 1907 Cluj
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Tromso a 65% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Tromso at 65% where the consensus of 13 bookmakers has 61% — a gap in our favour of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 50/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Tromso saw off CFR 1907 Cluj 2-1 in the second leg to book their place in the next round, building on their commanding 5-0 first-leg advantage. The designated home side opened the scoring early when Hien fired past the Cluj keeper in the sixth minute, set up by L. O. Larsen. Cluj had work to do from that point, and Tromso made it two shortly after the restart when Vadebu added a second in the 48th minute, courtesy of T. Nyhammer's assist. Cluj grabbed a goal back through Korenica in the 78th minute, assisted by A. Sfait, but it came too late to trouble Tromso's path through the tie.
Our model's most likely outcome was a 2-0 win at 65 per cent, so we called the direction right but missed the exact scoreline. The fundamentals were sound — Tromso were heavy favourites given their first-leg demolition and Cluj's poor away record, and that edge held up. Tromso's attacking threat in the opening stages, mixed with Cluj's defensive struggles on the road, set the tone early. Where the forecast differed was Cluj managing to breach the Tromso defence in the second half, something our prediction hadn't weighted heavily. The aggregate margin ensured it didn't matter, but the late consolation meant the clean sheet didn't come through — a minor miss in what was otherwise a straightforward Tromso performance in a tie that was decided long before the second whistle.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 13 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tromso Win | 1/2 1.50 | 61% | 65% | +4% |
| Draw | 10/3 4.22 | 22% | 20% | -2% |
| CFR 1907 Cluj Win | 9/2 5.57 | 17% | 15% | -2% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Conference League knockout — elimination stakes
- 🔢 First leg 0-5 (2026-08-06): Tromso leading aggregate by 5. Tromso needs to avoid losing by 6+ goals; CFR 1907 Cluj needs to win by 5+ goals (or force ET if win by exactly 5).
- 🎯 Final scoreline overridden to AI pick 2-0 (aggregate-tie: AI tactical reasoning trusted over Poisson form blend)
- 🎯 Probabilities recomputed from final scoreline 2-0 (aggregate-tie override): 76/17/7
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Tromso averaging 3.18 goals scored at home with recent 5-0 and 6-2 wins; Cluj averaging just 1.49 goals with LDLD away record.
H2H: First leg ended 0-5 to Tromso — historically dominant in this tie.
Stakes: Tromso merely need to avoid a 6-goal defeat; Cluj must score 5+, making Tromso's defensive job straightforward and Cluj's attacking task near-impossible away from home.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
First leg: CFR 1907 Cluj 0-5 Tromso (2026-08-06). Tromso were dominant in every phase. Limited broader H2H data but this fixture clearly illustrates a significant quality gap in this tie.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.