Roma came to Udine and put on a show, running out 5-2 winners in a match that quickly got away from Udinese's grip. Bryan Cristante opened the scoring early on, slotting home from Wesley Vinícius França Lima's assist in the 10th minute, and Roma just kept coming. Cristante turned provider for Rodrigo Mora's finish two minutes before the half-hour, then Donyell Malen made it three from Matias Soule's cross just a couple of minutes later. Evan Ndicka added a fourth before half-time—also set up by Soule—and Roma looked like they might run away with it completely. Udinese pulled one back after the restart through Nicolo Zaniolo in the 50th minute, but the damage was done. Matteo Palma got a second for the hosts late on, assisted by Hassane Kamara in the 78th, only for Daniele Ghilardi to round things off for Roma deep into injury time.

Our model favoured Roma going in, assigning them a 52% win probability, but the expected shape was tighter than what actually unfolded. We'd projected a 0-2 scoreline based on Roma's stronger underlying metrics—their expected goals sat at 2.49 compared to Udinese's 0.78—and the clean sheet fitted that lean. What didn't fit was Roma's ruthlessness in attack. The guests found the net five times instead of two, exploiting chances with a clinical edge our pre-match numbers hadn't quite captured. Udinese's xG deficit was real, but they weren't completely shut out like the prediction suggested. It's a reminder that expected goals frame the balance of play; they don't script every finish.