📊 Recent Form
Union Berlin
Borussia Dortmund
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Borussia Dortmund at 53%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 17% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Borussia Dortmund at 53% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 58% — a gap against us of 5 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund played out a goalless draw at the Köpenick, a result that defied our pre-match lean toward a Dortmund win. We'd backed a 1-2 scoreline with Dortmund winning at 53% probability, built on Dortmund's sharper underlying numbers—they held a significant expected goals advantage at 2.77 to Union's 1.17. That gap suggested the visitors would likely dominate the ball and create more, but neither side managed to break through.
Our model assigned just 17% to a draw before kickoff, so this wasn't the most probable outcome in our framework. Dortmund came into the match favored on both form and firepower, yet Union's defense held firm and the game remained tightly contested throughout. Sometimes a solid defensive display and a bit of fortune in front of goal is enough to hold a stronger side at bay, and that's precisely what happened here. Neither goalkeeper was called into action for anything genuinely testing in the end.
The stalemate leaves Dortmund's title credentials on hold for now, while Union will take the point as a decent result against one of the Bundesliga's top sides. It's a reminder that expected goals are a tool for understanding patterns over time, not guarantees—on any given Sunday, a team can execute a game plan and keep things tight, and that's exactly what we saw.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin Win Value | 4/1 4.88 | 20% | 30% | +10% |
| Draw | 10/3 4.35 | 22% | 17% | -5% |
| Borussia Dortmund Win | 8/13 1.63 | 58% | 53% | -5% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Union Berlin in relegation danger (P16/18)
- 🏆 Borussia Dortmund in title race (P2)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Bundesliga history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Union Berlin xG 1.17 | Borussia Dortmund xG 2.77
Projected: 18% / 12% / 70%
H2H: 2W-0D-6L
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
2W-0D-6L for Union Berlin in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.