📊 Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise
Cercle Brugge
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Union St. Gilloise a 67% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Union St. Gilloise at 67% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 71% — a gap against us of 4 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise Win | 1/3 1.32 | 71% | 67% | -4% |
| Draw | 9/2 5.50 | 17% | 18% | +1% |
| Cercle Brugge Win | 7/1 8.00 | 12% | 15% | +3% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🆘 Cercle Brugge in relegation danger (P18/18)
- ⏱️ Rest advantage: Cercle Brugge (8d) vs Union St. Gilloise (2d) — Cercle Brugge significantly fresher
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Union St. Gilloise xG 2.73 | Cercle Brugge xG 0.62
Projected: 79% / 14% / 7%
H2H: 4W-2D-2L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
4W-2D-2L for Union St. Gilloise in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.