📊 Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise
Hapoel Beer Sheva
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Union St. Gilloise at 55%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 26% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Union St. Gilloise at 55% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 71% — a gap against us of 16 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 66/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Union St. Gilloise made a compelling case for their Europa League credentials with a commanding 4-0 demolition of Hapoel Beer Sheva at home. Raul Florucz opened the scoring from the penalty spot in first-half stoppage time, and the hosts never looked back. Guilherme Smith doubled their advantage in the 60th minute—Relebohile Mofokeng with the assist—before Dylan Aquino added a third at 77 minutes. Smith rounded things off with a second goal in the 81st, this time set up by Denzel De Roeve, to seal a resounding victory that sends Union through to the next round in style.
Our model had forecast a 2-0 win for the designated home side, placing that outcome as the most likely single result. We got the direction spot on—Union dominated as expected—but the actual scoreline was altogether more emphatic, with the Belgian side running up an extra two goals. Before kickoff, the underlying factors did stack in Union's favour: solid home form and a resilient defensive record suggested they'd edge a knockout tie against a Beer Sheva side weakened by injuries and inconsistent on the road. The match unfolded largely in line with that thinking, except Union's attacking edge proved sharper than the model had weighted. It's a reminder that a correctly called result can still underestimate a team's margin of superiority—the model's 55% win probability for Union left room for a tighter contest than what actually transpired.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise Win | 4/11 1.35 | 71% | 55% | -16% |
| Draw Value | 9/2 5.45 | 18% | 26% | +8% |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva Win Value | 7/1 8.30 | 11% | 19% | +8% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: USG dominant at home (WDDWWD), last 5 scores include 3-0, 2-0, 3-0 — very solid defensively. Beer Sheva away form mixed (LWWWL) with multiple injuries decimating their squad.
H2H: Limited data between these sides.
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination pressure should fuel USG intensity at home while Beer Sheva's depleted squad may struggle to threaten.
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data — insufficient head-to-head history to draw meaningful trends between these two clubs.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.