📊 Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise
Lommel United
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Union St. Gilloise at 56%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 22% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Union St. Gilloise at 56% where the consensus of 6 bookmakers has 77% — a gap against us of 21 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 70/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 6 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise Win | 1/5 1.21 | 77% | 56% | -21% |
| Draw Value | 5/1 6.25 | 15% | 22% | +7% |
| Lommel United Win Value | 10/1 11.06 | 8% | 22% | +14% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 Union St. Gilloise in title race (P2)
- 😴 Lommel United mid-table (P9) — low motivation
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Union St. Gilloise averaging 2.69 goals scored at home with recent 3-2, 3-0, 3-0 results; Lommel United averaging 1.08 goals scored with mixed away form (WDLDW)
H2H: Union St. Gilloise unbeaten in last 8 (5W-3D), averaging 3.1 goals/game — high-scoring fixture history
Stakes: Union St. Gilloise chasing title from P2, strong incentive; Lommel United in mid-table P9 with minimal pressure
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-1.
⚔️ Head to Head
Union St. Gilloise have dominated this fixture across all 8 recorded meetings — 5 wins and 3 draws, zero losses. Recent games include a 4-2 and 3-2 in Union's favour, confirming this is historically a high-scoring fixture with the home side consistently finding the net multiple times.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 2-1 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.
