📊 Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise
OH Leuven
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine makes Union St. Gilloise a 69% call — a clear lean, and about as certain as this model gets on a three-way market where the draw always takes a share of the book.
We have Union St. Gilloise at 69% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 76% — a gap against us of 7 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as high at 72/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise Win | 2/9 1.23 | 76% | 69% | -7% |
| Draw | 5/1 6.00 | 16% | 17% | +1% |
| OH Leuven Win Value | 10/1 11.00 | 8% | 14% | +6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 Union St. Gilloise chasing top-2 (P3)
- 🆘 OH Leuven in relegation danger (P14, only 1 pt cushion)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Union St. Gilloise in outstanding home form (WWDD) with 3.21 avg goals scored; OH Leuven averaging just 0.94 goals and conceding 1.78 away
H2H: Union win 6/8, including a 5-0 at home in Aug 2025; Leuven have never beaten Union in last 8
Stakes: Union pushing for top-2 (P3) adds competitive edge; Leuven in relegation danger (P14) but poor away record suggests fear more than fight
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 3-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Union St. Gilloise completely dominate this fixture — 6 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in last 8 meetings, including a 5-0 thrashing at home in August 2025. OH Leuven have not beaten Union in any of the last 8 encounters.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 3-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 3-0 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.