📊 Recent Form
Union St. Gilloise
Real Sociedad
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Union St. Gilloise at 52%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 23% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Union St. Gilloise at 52% where the consensus of 10 bookmakers has 38% — a gap in our favour of 14 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 61/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad played out a 1-1 draw in a closely contested Europa League knockout tie. Real Sociedad struck first after the interval, with Turrientes opening the scoring in the 46th minute. Union St. Gilloise pulled level late on when Keita levelled in the 88th minute, securing a share of the spoils and setting up what looks like a tense second leg.
Our model predicted a 2-0 win for the designated home side, with a 52% lean toward Union St. Gilloise, a 23% probability on the draw, and 25% for a Real Sociedad victory. The actual result — a draw — fell well outside our primary call. The model had weighted Union St. Gilloise's home form and superior rating heavily, factoring in Real Sociedad's struggles on the road, but neither side could build the kind of dominance the pre-match analysis expected. Instead, the match stayed tight, and both teams left with their hopes intact heading into the return fixture.
What played out was a far tighter affair than the model's framing suggested. Union St. Gilloise didn't impose themselves as convincingly as their home record and ELO advantage implied they might, while Real Sociedad showed enough resilience to avoid a heavy defeat and grab an away goal to take back to Spain. It's a fair result that leaves the tie genuinely open.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 10 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise Win Value | 6/4 2.50 | 38% | 52% | +14% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.60 | 26% | 23% | -3% |
| Real Sociedad Win | 13/8 2.68 | 36% | 25% | -11% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🏆 UEFA Europa League knockout — elimination stakes
🔍 Key Stats
Form: USG dominant at home (DWWD) averaging 2.79 goals scored, 0.63 conceded; Real Sociedad away form poor (WWLL) with 1.85 conceded per game
H2H: Limited data — model favours USG 2-0 as most probable scoreline at 16.1%
Stakes: UEFA Europa League knockout — full motivation from both sides, but USG's superior ELO and home advantage are decisive
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 2-0.
⚔️ Head to Head
Limited data available between these sides; statistical model strongly favours USG at home with a 2-0 outcome as the single most probable scoreline (16.1%)
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 2-0 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.