USA vs Belgium

Belgium swept past USA with a commanding 4-1 victory in a World Cup knockout fixture that proved far more one-sided than our pre-match model had anticipated. De Ketelaere opened the scoring early on in the ninth minute with an assist from Raskin, and though Tillman equalised for USA in the 31st minute, Belgium reasserted control almost immediately. De Ketelaere struck again just two minutes later, this time set up by Trossard, to edge the Belgians ahead. Vanaken extended the lead in the 57th minute with De Ketelaere providing the assist, before Lukaku rounded off the rout deep into stoppage time, finishing from Vanaken's pass.

Our model had predicted a 1-2 scoreline with Belgium favoured at 41% to win, leaning toward a tight contest shaped by Belgium's strong recent form against an inconsistent USA side. The pre-match indicators—Belgium's edge in head-to-head meetings and a high-scoring historical trend between the sides—pointed toward a cagey, competitive affair. The match played out in Belgium's favour, but the gulf in execution was wider than the model had weighted. USA couldn't sustain the momentum of their equaliser, and Belgium's attacking threat proved too much to manage as the game wore on. We called the result direction right but underestimated the margin. Sometimes the stronger side simply runs away with it.