📊 Recent Form
Valerenga
Bodo/Glimt
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Bodo/Glimt at 57%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 18% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
We have Bodo/Glimt at 57% where the consensus of 14 bookmakers has 65% — a gap against us of 8 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 4 goals. Comfortably over 2.5 and above the average match — the model expects both defences to give something up.
Confidence is filed as high at 70/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Bodo/Glimt made the short trip to Oslo and came away with a 2-1 win, putting in a performance that largely matched the pre-match script. Helmersen broke the deadlock early on with an assist from Auklend in the 19th minute, and though Valerenga pushed back, Aleesami doubled the visitors' lead in the 76th with a finish set up by Blomberg. Rajkovic pulled one back for the hosts in the 87th, assisted by Saeter, but it came too late to trouble Bodo/Glimt's grip on the match.
Our model called a Bodo/Glimt win with a 57% lean before kickoff—leaning on their title-race intensity, their dominant recent form, and the gulf in motivation between first and ninth place. We predicted a 1–3 scoreline, so the actual 1–2 result shows we overestimated Valerenga's attacking output. The match still shaped up as expected: away-side control, a couple of clinical finishes, and a late Valerenga goal that flattered without truly threatening. The win probability favoured Bodo/Glimt but it wasn't a lock—57% is a genuine lean, not a certainty—and the goalscoring margin landed one shy of what we'd flagged.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 14 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valerenga Win Value | 9/2 5.75 | 16% | 25% | +9% |
| Draw | 4/1 4.80 | 19% | 18% | -1% |
| Bodo/Glimt Win | 4/9 1.44 | 65% | 57% | -8% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Valerenga mid-table (P9) — low motivation
- 🏆 Bodo/Glimt in title race (P1)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Bodo/Glimt 80% win rate, avg 2.92 scored and only 0.8 conceded; Valerenga 50% win rate, inconsistent defence
H2H: Bodo/Glimt dominant (7/8 wins), avg 5.3 goals per game, high-scoring pattern consistent
Stakes: Bodo/Glimt in title race (P1) vs Valerenga mid-table (P9) — significant motivation gap favours away side
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-3.
⚔️ Head to Head
Bodo/Glimt have won 7 of the last 8 meetings with an average of 5.3 goals per game — a consistently high-scoring and away-dominant fixture. Recent scorelines like 7-2 and 4-2 reinforce Glimt's superiority in this matchup.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-3 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-3 scoreline totals 4 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.