Vanuatu vs Fiji
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 3 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanuatu Win Value | 11/10 2.09 | 45% | 89% | +44% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 8% | -17% |
| Fiji Win | 2/1 3.05 | 30% | 3% | -27% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Vanuatu home WW with clean sheets; Fiji away LLWLL, avg 0.21 goals scored
H2H: Vanuatu win 4/7, avg 3 goals/game, most recent was Vanuatu 2-0 Fiji (Nov 2025)
Stakes: Friendly with no direct stakes but Vanuatu playing at home with clear psychological edge
Betting: BTTS unlikely given Fiji's 0.21 avg goals scored and poor away form; Over 2.5 supported by Vanuatu's attacking xG of 4.06 and H2H high-scoring history
⚔️ Head to Head
Vanuatu dominate this fixture with 4 wins and 2 draws in last 7; last home meeting ended 2-0 to Vanuatu; fixture averages 3 goals per game though recent results suggest Fiji's attacking contribution is declining sharply
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
Fiji are extremely unlikely to score given their 0.21 goals-scored average, poor away record (LLWLL), and the most recent meeting ending 2-0 to Vanuatu with Fiji shut out; Vanuatu's home defensive record also shows clean sheets in their last two home games, making BTTS a low-probability outcome
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
With Vanuatu's xG of 4.06 and a H2H average of 3 goals per game, a 3-goal total is well within expectations; Vanuatu's attacking form at home (scoring 2+ in recent fixtures) and Fiji's inability to protect a clean sheet (conceding 2.36 per game) both point firmly toward over 2.5 goals