📊 Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
🧭 How the Model Sees It
The engine puts Flamengo at 46%, ahead but not commandingly. With the draw at 27% this is a fixture the model expects to stay tight.
Across 9 bookmakers the consensus lands within 2 points of our own on this outcome. Where the model and the market agree, expect the market’s accuracy rather than ours — agreement is not evidence that we are right, only that we are not saying anything unusual.
The projection totals 2 goals. That sits under the 2.5 line, though only just: one more goal from either side and that call is wrong.
Confidence is filed as medium at 55/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco DA Gama Win | 11/4 3.63 | 26% | 27% | +1% |
| Draw | 5/2 3.61 | 26% | 27% | +1% |
| Flamengo Win | 10/11 1.95 | 48% | 46% | -2% |
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 😴 Vasco DA Gama mid-table (P13) — low motivation
- 🏆 Flamengo in title race (P2)
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Vasco DA Gama xG 0.7 | Flamengo xG 2.19
Projected: 12% / 29% / 59%
H2H: 0W-4D-4L
Betting: a clean sheet for one side, under 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 0-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
0W-4D-4L for Vasco DA Gama in H2H
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline has at least one side kept off the scoresheet.
Over 2.5 Goals: No
The projected 0-2 scoreline totals 2 goals, keeping it under 2.5.
