Borussia Mönchengladbach pulled off a genuine upset at the Neckarstadion, coming from behind to beat VfB Stuttgart 3-2 in a match that turned everything our model expected on its head. Demirović gave Stuttgart an early lead in the fifth minute, assisted by Pejčinović, and it looked like the script was written. But Gladbach had other ideas. Scally levelled things up in the 38th minute, and after the break they took control completely — Machino made it 2-1 in the 51st, then Mohya added a third just past the hour mark, assisted by Scally. Demirović grabbed a second for Stuttgart in the 83rd to set up a tense finish, but Gladbach held on.

Our model gave this as a 3-0 Stuttgart win with the home side at 67% to win outright. That lean was anchored on Stuttgart's strong home record and Gladbach's struggles on the road, plus the head-to-head advantage sitting firmly with the hosts. With both sides in genuine relegation trouble, the logic looked sound — bottom-of-the-table Gladbach were expected to fold under Stuttgart's pressure. Instead, they showed real character and clinical finishing when it mattered. The match played out as a proper contest rather than the one-sided affair we'd sketched out beforehand, and that's exactly what can happen when you're dealing with probabilities rather than certainties. Gladbach's 17% chance to win came through, and Stuttgart's defensive vulnerabilities — flagged in our pre-match notes about their away form — proved costly when they had to chase the game.