Deportivo La Coruna pulled off a comeback win at Villarreal, running out 3-2 victors in a match that played out in almost complete opposition to what we'd forecast. Villarreal went ahead early through Pépé in the 19th minute, assisted by Pérez, but Deportivo levelled before half-time when Luismi Cruz finished after Aubameyang's assist. The game swung sharply in Deportivo's favour after the break: an own goal from Traoré in the 76th minute put them ahead, and Aubameyang made it three when Eddahchouri scored in the 79th. Aubameyang then added a fifth-minute flourish with a goal of his own in the 88th to seal it.

Our model backed Villarreal to edge this one 2-1, giving them a 51% win probability against Deportivo's 18%. The thinking was sound on paper — Villarreal needed the three points badly with relegation danger breathing down their neck, while Deportivo arrived without that same pressure — but the match unfolded very differently. Deportivo's attacking threat, particularly through Aubameyang, proved far more potent than the pre-match shape suggested, and Villarreal's defence cracked when it mattered most. The low-scoring pattern we'd flagged based on recent head-to-head form didn't materialise either; we're left with a 3-2 scoreline that speaks to a more wide-open, chaotic affair than our model had weighted. On the night, Deportivo were the sharper finishers and took their chances. That's football.