📊 Recent Form
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg
🧭 How the Model Sees It
Nothing here clears 41%. FC Augsburg edge it at 40% against 24% for the draw and 36% the other way — the inputs point in different directions and the engine is not claiming to know. That is published rather than dressed up.
We have FC Augsburg at 40% where the consensus of 9 bookmakers has 34% — a gap in our favour of 6 points. Disagreements like this are where a model earns or loses its reputation, so it is stated plainly rather than sold as an edge.
The projection totals 3 goals. That clears the 2.5 line, and it is roughly what an average football match produces — the model is not expecting anything unusual in either direction.
Confidence is filed as medium at 62/99. That tier is set from the shape of the probability distribution, not from how the fixture feels, and it is published before kick-off and graded against the result afterwards — right or wrong, it stays on the page.
📝 Match Recap
Werder Bremen staged a second-half turnaround to stun FC Augsburg 3-2 in a match that flipped completely after the interval. Augsburg had looked in control early on, with Fellhauer finishing from Rieder's assist in the 18th minute before Brackelmann doubled the lead from Claude-Maurice's cross just before the hour. But Bremen clawed their way back with clinical finishing. Grüll cut it to one in the 66th minute with San José Cantalejo's assist, Füllkrug levelled it in the 86th, and Weiser grabbed the winner in the 90th+3rd, latching onto a Grüll cutback to complete the comeback.
Our model had backed Augsburg here and predicted a 1-2 scoreline, giving them a 40% chance of victory against Bremen's 36%. That lean made sense on paper—Augsburg had been in sharp form and had dominated this fixture recently—but it didn't account for Bremen's ability to pull off a second-half recovery. The actual result landed well outside our main forecast, and the late drama exposed how quickly momentum can swing in the Bundesliga. Bremen's inconsistency at home had flagged as a concern before kickoff, yet they found a way when it mattered most, turning a half-time deficit into three points.
It's a useful reminder that probabilities cap out at 50% for a reason. Even the leaning favourite can come unstuck, and a two-goal buffer doesn't guarantee anything with 45 minutes left to play. Bremen deserved this one for their second-half intensity, but our model missed the mark on the night.
💰 Finding the Value
Our model probability vs the consensus across 9 bookmakers. Positive edge means we think this outcome is more likely than the market implies.
| Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen Win | 5/4 2.30 | 41% | 36% | -5% |
| Draw | 11/4 3.80 | 25% | 24% | -1% |
| FC Augsburg Win Value | 7/4 2.80 | 34% | 40% | +6% |
View pre-match analysis What we said before kickoff
⚡ Stakes & Context
- 🎯 FC Augsburg chasing top-4 (P3)
- 📊 Learning: draw probability nudged higher based on Bundesliga history
🔍 Key Stats
Form: Augsburg scoring 2.75 avg with DWWWLWWLD overall; Werder inconsistent at home WLDWW with 1.67 avg goals scored
H2H: Augsburg dominant recently — 4 wins in last 8, including 1-3 and 0-2 at Werder in last two away-leg meetings
Stakes: Augsburg chasing top-4 from P3 — high motivation; Werder mid-table with no urgency
Betting: both teams to score, over 2.5 goals — in line with the projected 1-2.
⚔️ Head to Head
Augsburg have won 4 of the last 8 H2H meetings and claimed victory the last two times they visited Werder (1-3 in May 2026, 0-2 in Jan 2025), establishing clear recent dominance in this fixture.
🎲 Betting Tips
Both Teams to Score: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline has both teams finding the net.
Over 2.5 Goals: Yes
The projected 1-2 scoreline totals 3 goals, clearing the 2.5 line.