West Brom and Charlton played out a 1-1 draw at The Hawthorns, with neither side able to find a decisive edge despite chances at both ends. Styles put West Brom ahead in the 59th minute, but Charlton hit back through Campbell just ten minutes later to level things up and secure a point in their title push.

Our model had pegged this at 1-0 to West Brom, giving the draw just a 29% chance—so the actual result landed well outside our primary lean. The thinking beforehand made intuitive sense: West Brom's mid-table position suggested lower motivation, while Charlton's position atop the table pointed toward a side hungry to win. That lean toward a West Brom victory was reasonable on paper. The reality, though, was tighter and more balanced than the model anticipated. Charlton's extensive injury list—Burke, Koumetio, Ramsay, Sichenje, Edwards, and Godden all absent—looked like it might blunt their attacking threat, but they showed enough character to fight back after falling behind.

The draw was a familiar outcome in this fixture; the teams had a draw-prone history, and the match unfolded as a cagey, low-scoring affair in line with that pattern. West Brom's defensive solidity couldn't hold out, and Charlton's motivation as league leaders came through in the end. It wasn't the scoreline we'd called, but it was the kind of tight, competitive Championship game that keeps the table moving.